Aug 17, 2022

Recent M.O.Q's

Construction Prices rose in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 at 0.75% per month following a 0.5% per month rate in the second half of 2021
Supply Chain Shortages, labor shortages, and increased backlogs are impacting bid prices. We recommend carrying a bidding contingency of 5%-15% in addition to escalation projections
Fed Watch: The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates 0.75% in line with plans to continue increases in rates and are continuing to tighten quantitative measures https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220727.pdf
Architectural Billings growth declined from a high of 58 in March to 53.2 in June along with a fall in contracts
Construction Dollar Volume: Residential construction continues to boom reaching new highs in Q2; non-residential construction is up 9.3% annually, but infrastructure spending decreased 3.83% this quarter. Go to Vermeulens’ blog for details on the infrastructure program and the effect of overall fiscal measures https://vermeulens.com/blog/the-bipartisan-infrastructure-plan-and-construction-costs
Construction Job Growth: Approximately 42,000 construction jobs were added in Q2, or +0.55%; construction employment is now only 0.6% above pre-pandemic levels
New York Stock Exchange dropped 14.4% from new highs reached in Q1 20221
Growth in Employment: Monthly average job growth through Q2 was 375K peaking in May with 384k before falling to 372k in June
Gross Domestic Product: GDP dropped from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022 for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. GDP in Q2 2022 raised at an annualized rate of 1.62%
Commodities: continue to put cost pressure on prices across the board. The war in Ukraine and pandemic closures in China have created significant shortages and price surges
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.7% year over year (May 21/ May 22) prompting the Fed to begin stabilizing monetary measures

Fed Watch

Inflation and employment targets propel monetary policy, and subsequently construction prices. Strong growth, low unemployment, and underlying inflation are bringing the Fed’s plans for quantitative tightening and interest rates forward by almost one year. As these measures take hold, some dampening of growth will occur over the medium term in the interest rate-sensitive construction sector.

Vermeulens Construction Cost Index

Price increases for Q2 2022 nationally increased to 0.75% monthly as contractor backlogs filled, and labor/material shortages continued.

For the past 34 years, construction prices trended at a 3.6% annually compounded escalation rate. The rate of escalation seen in construction costs relate to the target of 2% annual inflation for consumer prices and the monetary policy used to achieve this goal. Consumer inflation has increased rapidly to the long-term target of 2%.

In contrast to previous financial recessions, strong and immediate fiscal and monetary measures countered the collapse in activity at the outset of the pandemic. We are now at the turning point where these measures are reversing due to the overwhelming strength of major indicators.

The chart below illustrates bid prices for non-residential construction projects relative to the Construction Trendline (1986 = 100) of 3.57% and the 1.7% Personal Consumption Expenditures Index Trendline. Strength in the construction sector point to short term cost increases of 0.75% per month, and a continuing increase in the long term Vermeulens Trendline toward 4%.

AIA Billings

Architectural billings are a leading indicator for future construction volume. A score greater than 50 indicates growth. Design fee billings typically indicate construction volume 9 - 12 months in advance.

Architectural Billings and inquiry growth continued at a slow pace. The value of new signed design contracts also fell to the slowest pace of growth since January 2021. https://www.aia.org/

Put In Place Construction

Construction dollar volume grew in Q2, posting an 13.5% year over year increase (June 21/June 22). Construction dollar volume is the main driver of construction prices.

Residential dollar volume continued its explosive growth, improving year over year by 20.8% (June 21/June 22).

Non-Residential spending is up 9.3% year over year (June 21/June 22). Improved backlogs, attrition, and shortages are driving price increases in this sector.

Infrastructure spending increased since Q1 2022, with a 2.5% year over year change (June 21/June 22). Due to Federal programs, infrastructure spending is expected to increase by $50 billion per year over the next 10 years, approximately 10% of this sector. See https://vermeulens.com/blog/the-bipartisan-infrastructure-plan-and-construction-costs for more specifics of the program.

http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html

Commodity Prices

Crude Oil reached $107.76 per barrel at the end of June 2022. Prices increased relatively throughout the quarter, peaking at $121.94 on June 8th.

Structural Steel prices through Q2 2022 increased from Q1 2022 levels. Structural sections and beams remained the same and rebar is down by 0.08% since March 2022. Steel futures indicate a gradual return in prices by 2023.

Construction Labor Market

Construction Unemployment at the end of Q2 sits at 5.3% (12-month average), down from 5.9% at the end of Q1, reflecting a lack of increase in labor supply.

Construction Job Growth was 42,000 or 0.55%, this quarter. Wage and profit increases in the sector, driven by residential volumes, will draw new entrants, as well as restructuring from other sectors of the economy. Labor growth is likely to continue its steep rise as selling prices in the sector outperform other industries.

Construction Labor Force Growth Rate

Construction Labor Force Growth Rate is calculated by the current 12-month average in construction employment relative to previous 12-month average in construction employment.

Total Jobs and Market Performance

Monthly average job growth for the US economy through Q2 was 375K peaking in May with 384k before falling to 372k in June.

The chart below removes short-term fluctuations in job growth by looking at a 6-month moving average. The size of the labor force grows at 100,000 per month due to population increase. Sustained periods of recession, where job creation remains below 100,000 jobs per month, has accompanied dips in construction prices as illustrated by the red bars below.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Employment Percentage of Total Workforce

Total Employment as a percentage of total workforce continued its recovery reaching more than 92% at the end of Q2 2022.

The chart below shows total employment as a percentage of the US workforce. The Federal Reserve will accommodate growth to maximize employment. Both the size of the labor force and participation rates are at play, as we have seen in recent months, where labor force growth has not kept pace with employment opportunities, resulting in shortages. See Vermeulens’ blog, The Feds New Normal, for more analysis of employment and labor force factors.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220316a1.pdf

Forecast - National Trend

Construction prices rose in Q2 of 2022 at 0.75% per month following a 0.5% per month rate in the second half of 2021. Contractor backlogs stabilized along with expectations of strong margins, increased labor costs, and upward volatility in supply prices. Medium term construction price inflation is forecast at 6 to 9% annually before settling to a long-term average of 4% for non-residential construction.

The Federal Reserve’s “new normal” has raised inflation above the previous trend of 1.5%. Medium-term inflation could exceed 3% before settling to the 2% long-term target. See Vermeulens’ blog, The Feds New Normal for more information. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220316a1.pdf